EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Scry Games PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

57.4%

4.7% share · 12 matches

7.0% share · 16 matches

2.3% share · 6 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Seiryuu	3	7.0%	16	87.5%	66.8%	60.6%	56.4%	1498	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	4.7%	12	70.8%	62.2%	57.4%	56.3%	1358	↑ top
3	Water Slimes	1	2.3%	6	83.3%	51.6%	57.1%	50.7%	1467	↑ top
4	Wind Arcane	1	2.3%	6	66.7%	61.1%	55.7%	55.1%	1325	↑ top
5	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.3%	6	75.0%	59.2%	55.6%	53.2%	1280	—
6	Fire Slimes	3	7.0%	14	60.7%	60.1%	55.1%	54.9%	1208	—
7	Wind Ciel	1	2.3%	6	66.7%	60.1%	54.2%	54.4%	1196	—
8	Fire Crux Mage	4	9.3%	18	47.2%	45.2%	53.9%	52.6%	1260	—
9	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	2.3%	6	58.3%	54.4%	52.8%	52.3%	1333	↑ top
10	Water Genbu	1	2.3%	6	41.7%	47.1%	52.4%	51.9%	1143	↓ low
11	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.3%	6	50.0%	57.0%	52.0%	53.5%	1126	↓ low
12	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	2.3%	6	58.3%	57.6%	50.0%	50.9%	1182	—
13	Water Zander	1	2.3%	6	41.7%	43.2%	50.0%	49.0%	1160	↓ low
14	Wind Shadowstrike	2	4.7%	7	42.9%	47.5%	48.5%	48.9%	1165	↓ low
15	Water Fractal	4	9.3%	12	41.7%	27.5%	47.9%	41.8%	1398	↑ top
16	Fire Suited	1	2.3%	6	33.3%	43.8%	47.5%	49.2%	1164	↓ low
17	Fire Aggro	5	11.6%	26	30.8%	43.2%	44.3%	48.0%	1113	↓ low
18	Wind Razorgale	1	2.3%	5	20.0%	43.4%	43.1%	48.0%	1057	↓ low
19	Wind Allies	5	11.6%	22	31.8%	47.2%	42.7%	48.1%	1085	↓ low
20	Water Astra Cleric	1	2.3%	1	0.0%	40.5%	40.0%	40.5%	1173	↓ low
21	Wind Byakko	1	2.3%	1	0.0%	44.2%	40.0%	44.2%	1217	—
22	Fire Aetherwing	2	4.7%	2	0.0%	24.0%	33.3%	24.0%	1457	↑ top