EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AJITO Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 58.3% | 54.0% | 55.7% | 54.6% | 1313 | — |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 9.4% | 28 | 66.1% | 59.1% | 55.6% | 53.3% | 1334 | — |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 62.5% | 53.0% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 69.4% | 54.7% | 56.9% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.0% | 53.8% | 52.9% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 2 | 3.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 46.1% | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 3.8% | 11 | 59.1% | 58.5% | 53.7% | 54.0% | 1363 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Oblation | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 46.7% | 53.1% | 47.9% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 66.7% | 57.9% | 52.3% | 51.8% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 7 | 13.2% | 36 | 58.3% | 49.0% | 51.6% | 48.6% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 58.3% | 49.9% | 50.5% | 49.0% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 9.4% | 21 | 54.8% | 61.0% | 48.2% | 51.9% | 1258 | — |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.6% | 47.9% | 48.0% | 1292 | — |
| 14 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 39.2% | 46.5% | 44.7% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 51.4% | 46.0% | 50.5% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 5.7% | 18 | 58.3% | 64.3% | 45.6% | 49.6% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.9% | 45.5% | 48.3% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.1% | 45.3% | 47.1% | 1240 | — |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 54.2% | 45.0% | 51.7% | 1092 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.5% | 43.7% | 43.5% | 1231 | — |
| 21 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.4% | 43.1% | 46.2% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.8% | 42.7% | 45.5% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 43.5% | 42.5% | 46.8% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.6% | 42.5% | 44.8% | 1246 | — |
| 25 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 41.4% | 42.3% | 45.1% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 32.9% | 42.1% | 42.5% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.7% | 41.8% | 43.1% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.7% | 41.8% | 46.4% | 1303 | — |
| 29 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.6% | 40.8% | 42.9% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 0.0% | 25.4% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Suited | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.2% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1157 | ↓ low |