← TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.9%
avg ELO -12.7 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1386–1386
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1182
Q1 1238
Q3 1499
1538
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
