← TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-1-2
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
56.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1499
· median 1499
· range 1499–1499
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1182
Q1 1238
Q3 1499
1538
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 23.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.9% | +2.1 |
| Water Allies | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
