← TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
Water AlliesTier 2
at TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1266
· median 1266
· range 1223–1308
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1182
Q1 1238
Q3 1499
1538
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 23.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.4 |
