← Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 78.6% | 53.0% | 61.2% | 52.1% | 1513 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 15.8% | 14 | 71.4% | 68.1% | 58.1% | 57.8% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 10.5% | 10 | 65.0% | 56.9% | 53.6% | 52.9% | 1350 | — |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 2 | 10.5% | 10 | 60.0% | 39.1% | 50.5% | 43.7% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 44.1% | 50.0% | 46.0% | 1304 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 58.8% | 48.8% | 52.0% | 1350 | — |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.5% | 48.6% | 48.7% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 40.2% | 48.0% | 47.2% | 1336 | — |
| 9 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.8% | 47.5% | 48.0% | 1291 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.4% | 46.7% | 51.3% | 1278 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 33.3% | 47.8% | 43.0% | 47.5% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 39.8% | 42.5% | 46.1% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 39.3% | 40.0% | 46.2% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 40.0% | 45.2% | 1282 | — |