← Rapid Star PTM Store Championship
Fire OblationTier 2
at Rapid Star PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1305–1466
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1277
Q3 1391
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 20.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 15.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
