Water FractalTier 2

at Rapid Star PTM Store Championship

decks

3 (15.0% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

15 8-6-1

overall winrate

56.7%

ELO-adjusted winrate

57.9% avg ELO +3.2 per match

expected value

49.0% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↓ low

mean ELO 1292 · median 1298 · range 1147–1432 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)

1147 Q1 1277 Q3 1391 1535

33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Water Aetherwing	20.0%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	49.9%	-0.1
Wind Seiryuu	20.0%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	44.0%	-4.5
Fire Oblation	10.0%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	55.9%	+5.7
Horse and Taxes	10.0%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	51.4%	+1.3
Wind Shadowstrike	10.0%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	48.3%	-2.7
Fire Byakko	5.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.9%	+12.7
Fire Firebloom Burn	5.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Genbu	5.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.9%	+12.7
Fire Seiryuu	5.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.9%	+12.7
Fire Suzaku	5.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	57.9%	+12.7
Water Luxem Assassin	5.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/46665/archetypes/Water Fractal