EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 20260307 貓腳印-桃園店 PTM 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 6.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 41.7% | 53.3% | 45.5% | 1567 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 13.3% | 22 | 63.6% | 63.8% | 52.9% | 54.6% | 1337 | — |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 3 | 10.0% | 16 | 59.4% | 61.9% | 52.4% | 54.0% | 1297 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 13.3% | 21 | 57.1% | 54.8% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 1339 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.7% | 9 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.1% | 50.4% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 16.7% | 25 | 46.0% | 45.1% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 1325 | — |
| 7 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 48.9% | 49.4% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 56.3% | 46.8% | 51.7% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.9% | 46.2% | 47.4% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 45.6% | 45.6% | 46.1% | 1348 | — |
| 11 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 44.6% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 31.0% | 42.2% | 39.2% | 1365 | — |
| 13 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | 1272 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.4% | 40.0% | 40.3% | 1296 | — |