EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fortress PTM StoreChamps.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 12.5% | 10 | 90.0% | 64.4% | 58.7% | 54.5% | 1368 | — |
| 2 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.6% | 56.0% | 56.4% | 1352 | — |
| 3 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 38.9% | 52.5% | 45.6% | 1630 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.4% | 52.0% | 52.2% | 1365 | — |
| 5 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 57.3% | 51.7% | 53.0% | 1331 | — |
| 6 | Water Neos | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 57.3% | 51.7% | 53.0% | 1331 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.6% | 50.0% | 53.1% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 48.0% | 52.9% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 48.0% | 52.9% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.5% | 47.8% | 51.6% | 1255 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 12.5% | 10 | 30.0% | 28.4% | 44.4% | 42.9% | 1307 | — |
| 13 | Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.5% | 44.0% | 46.1% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.4% | 44.0% | 46.5% | 1316 | — |
| 15 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 44.0% | 44.0% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.7% | 43.3% | 46.6% | 1346 | — |