EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 100.0% | 63.8% | 62.7% | 55.0% | 1632 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 64.3% | 48.5% | 59.9% | 51.7% | 1608 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 3 | 17.6% | 14 | 53.6% | 56.6% | 52.1% | 52.4% | 1357 | — |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1281 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 17.6% | 14 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 1277 | — |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 38.9% | 50.1% | 48.6% | 51.4% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.4% | 47.9% | 45.6% | 1328 | — |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.9% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.3% | 44.4% | 47.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 43.3% | 41.9% | 1250 | — |
| 11 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 42.6% | 40.0% | 45.9% | 1004 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.8% | 40.0% | 46.2% | 1095 | ↓ low |