Fire OblationTier 2
at Hideout PTM STORE CHAMPS
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-5-1
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.6%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1248
· median 1248
· range 1183–1312
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1266
Q3 1388
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
