Water FractalTier 1
at Hideout PTM STORE CHAMPS
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-4-0
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1446
· median 1446
· range 1433–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1266
Q3 1388
1525
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
