Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Hideout PTM STORE CHAMPS
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1522
· median 1522
· range 1519–1525
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1266
Q3 1388
1525
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.1 |
