Fire AggroTier 1
at DX STORE CHAMP
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -5.2 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1266–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1261
Q3 1409
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
