Water AetherwingTier 1
at DX STORE CHAMP
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |