Water FractalTier 2
at DX STORE CHAMP
decks
4
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-9-3
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1367
· range 1088–1460
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1261
Q3 1409
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
