← Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 5 90.0% 65.3% 59.4% 56.0% 1431 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 1 10.0% 5 80.0% 54.4% 58.7% 52.8% 1456 ↑ top
3 Water Allies 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 51.7% 52.0% 52.6% 1315 ↑ top
4 Wind Umbra Diana 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 62.0% 52.0% 51.7% 1178 ↓ low
5 Water Ravishing Mill 2 20.0% 8 50.0% 53.7% 50.5% 51.6% 1229
6 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 49.4% 50.0% 50.3% 1211
7 Wind Shadowstrike 2 20.0% 7 35.7% 42.8% 46.3% 46.9% 1238
8 Wind Arcane Rai 1 10.0% 5 20.0% 39.2% 43.3% 45.7% 1176 ↓ low
9 Fire Crux Merlin 1 10.0% 4 0.0% 31.1% 40.0% 42.4% 1051 ↓ low