EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GOH STORE CHAMP .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 61.1% | 54.5% | 54.8% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 3 | 15.8% | 14 | 64.3% | 54.1% | 54.5% | 51.1% | 1419 | — |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.2% | 52.9% | 52.7% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 15.8% | 15 | 56.7% | 55.1% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 50.0% | 48.5% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 49.1% | 45.8% | 1513 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 15.8% | 14 | 46.4% | 55.4% | 48.6% | 51.9% | 1303 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 2 | 10.5% | 7 | 28.6% | 39.2% | 46.9% | 47.4% | 1282 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 61.3% | 46.7% | 52.6% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 33.3% | 41.6% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 23.3% | 45.0% | 40.1% | 1465 | ↑ top |