EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 3/8ストアチャンピオンシップ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 55.1% | 58.4% | 58.1% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 18.2% | 21 | 64.3% | 57.2% | 54.8% | 52.5% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.2% | 53.3% | 50.5% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.2% | 52.2% | 56.2% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 13.6% | 14 | 53.6% | 61.4% | 51.0% | 55.2% | 1289 | — |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 55.0% | 42.2% | 50.8% | 46.3% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 7 | 71.4% | 52.9% | 48.9% | 45.8% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 46.4% | 1345 | — |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.1% | 47.5% | 48.6% | 1372 | — |
| 10 | Water Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 1292 | — |
| 11 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.7% | 43.0% | 44.3% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.4% | 42.5% | 43.3% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.2% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.5% | 40.0% | 44.4% | 1157 | ↓ low |