← Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 85.7% | 69.1% | 59.0% | 57.4% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.5% | 55.0% | 52.8% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 17.6% | 13 | 65.4% | 55.7% | 54.5% | 51.9% | 1413 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.8% | 11 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 1345 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.1% | 51.1% | 48.4% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 55.0% | 62.8% | 50.2% | 53.5% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 41.5% | 49.0% | 46.9% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 49.6% | 48.9% | 50.2% | 1380 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 11.8% | 7 | 21.4% | 36.0% | 41.1% | 43.8% | 1309 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 999 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 37.6% | 40.0% | 43.5% | 1466 | ↑ top |