EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 7.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 53.7% | 57.0% | 53.1% | 1521 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 52.3% | 56.2% | 52.4% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 2 | 7.7% | 8 | 50.0% | 40.2% | 55.9% | 50.2% | 1280 | — |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.8% | 8 | 81.2% | 62.6% | 54.8% | 52.4% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 66.7% | 54.4% | 55.6% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.2% | 53.3% | 50.5% | 1618 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 3 | 11.5% | 17 | 61.8% | 48.3% | 53.0% | 49.5% | 1364 | — |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 64.9% | 52.9% | 57.8% | 1276 | — |
| 9 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.3% | 51.7% | 52.3% | 1276 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 11.5% | 15 | 46.7% | 50.3% | 51.2% | 51.4% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Jin | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.2% | 49.6% | 52.2% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Slimes | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 48.9% | 49.1% | 1356 | — |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 36.2% | 48.0% | 46.6% | 1309 | — |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 52.5% | 44.5% | 51.5% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.5% | 40.0% | 44.6% | 1324 | — |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 19.2% | 13 | 15.4% | 36.6% | 39.1% | 44.8% | 1200 | ↓ low |