← Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 100.0% | 60.2% | 64.0% | 54.6% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.4% | 54.0% | 50.9% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 52.5% | 54.5% | 1238 | — |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 52.0% | 50.9% | 1218 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 18.2% | 9 | 55.6% | 59.7% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.3% | 50.0% | 48.1% | 1269 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.9% | 48.3% | 52.4% | 1249 | — |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Tamer | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | 44.9% | 1212 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | 44.9% | 1212 | — |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.5% | 41.7% | 46.8% | 1049 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.4% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1146 | ↓ low |