Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championships
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1447
· median 1447
· range 1415–1480
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1184
Q3 1436
1576
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 19.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 19.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
