Water FractalTier 2
at Store Championships
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1276–1276
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1184
Q3 1436
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 19.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 19.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
