Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championships
decks
4
(19.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
9-3-1
overall winrate
73.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.9%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
57.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1339
· median 1324
· range 1158–1549
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1184
Q3 1436
1576
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 19.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 61.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Wind Chess | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
