Water AetherwingTier 2
at Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.6 |
| Wind Chess | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |