EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Chronos Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 8 | 68.8% | 53.9% | 59.4% | 53.8% | 1363 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 6 | 50.0% | 45.8% | 50.0% | 48.0% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 62.7% | 48.3% | 54.2% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 25.0% | 9 | 44.4% | 46.9% | 46.5% | 47.4% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 1168 | ↓ low |