← Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 87.5% | 54.4% | 58.3% | 51.4% | 1292 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.1% | 54.3% | 50.8% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Neos | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.7% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 49.3% | 50.1% | 1220 | — |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 48.6% | 48.6% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.6% | 48.3% | 49.7% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.6% | 46.0% | 49.6% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 13.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.9% | 45.7% | 48.8% | 1264 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 46.3% | 40.0% | 47.8% | 1232 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 46.2% | 40.0% | 48.2% | 1188 | ↓ low |