← Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
Water ArisannaTier 3
at Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1444
· median 1444
· range 1444–1444
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1206
Q3 1426
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Slimes | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
