← Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
decks
5
(4.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
10-12-2
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1259
· median 1262
· range 1162–1345
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1206
Q3 1426
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
| Slimes | 10.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.8 |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
