← Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
Water NeosTier 2
at Luxera's Map MRC Tournament Open
decks
4
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-10-4
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1455
· median 1453
· range 1349–1567
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1206
Q3 1426
1730
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Slimes | 10.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
