← StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1455
· median 1455
· range 1455–1455
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1232
Q3 1401
1597
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
