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Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Engulf | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pearled Prayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |