← StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
Water FractalTier 2
at StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1182–1355
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1232
Q3 1401
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
