EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RDO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Exia | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 71.7% | 60.7% | 61.0% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 66.4% | 58.3% | 57.0% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 80.0% | 61.6% | 56.7% | 54.2% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 46.4% | 55.2% | 50.4% | 1322 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1244 | — |
| 6 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 51.4% | 53.5% | 1300 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 48.6% | 49.0% | 1211 | — |
| 8 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 43.3% | 47.5% | 47.3% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Chess | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 43.8% | 58.6% | 46.2% | 51.2% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.2% | 45.0% | 43.5% | 1311 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 35.6% | 44.0% | 43.1% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 45.4% | 43.3% | 47.9% | 1052 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.3% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 23.8% | 35.6% | 31.3% | 1278 | — |