← Wild Magic Store - Store Championship - Radiant Origins
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Wild Magic Store - Store Championship - Radiant Origins
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.7%
avg ELO -9.8 per match
expected value
42.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1102
· median 1102
· range 1102–1102
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1126
Q3 1325
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
