← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
decks
4
(17.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-9-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1315
· range 1136–1349
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1140
Q3 1317
1474
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 35.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Tonoris | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
