← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Wind AlliesTier 2
at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 24.8% | -16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.4% | +6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |