← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Water Crux MageTier 2
at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1115
· median 1115
· range 1115–1115
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1140
Q3 1317
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
