Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at RDO Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.5%
avg ELO -9.3 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1108
· median 1108
· range 1108–1108
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1071
Q1 1175
Q3 1352
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
