Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at RDO Massachusetts Regionals
decks
3
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-8-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1269
· range 1217–1300
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1071
Q1 1175
Q3 1352
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Chess | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
