Water ExiaTier 2
at RDO Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-0-2
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1624
· median 1624
· range 1624–1624
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1071
Q1 1175
Q3 1352
1624
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Chess | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Water Oblation | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
