Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at RDO Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 8.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +4.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Shadowstrike | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |