← RDO Store Champs - Card Merchant

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RDO Store Champs - Card Merchant. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 7.1% 6 83.3% 66.5% 57.3% 56.3% 1575 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 7.1% 5 60.0% 42.7% 53.3% 47.6% 1558 ↑ top
3 Water Astra Ranger 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 54.5% 52.0% 53.3% 1225 ↓ low
4 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 7.1% 4 62.5% 52.8% 52.0% 51.8% 1423 ↑ top
5 Wind Crux Lorraine 2 14.3% 10 55.0% 42.7% 51.0% 47.2% 1390 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 1 7.1% 5 60.0% 65.8% 50.0% 54.3% 1273
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 59.3% 50.0% 53.7% 1058 ↓ low
8 Fire Slimes 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 50.6% 50.0% 51.0% 1368
9 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 7.1% 3 33.3% 34.3% 50.0% 45.8% 1383
10 Wind Razorgale 1 7.1% 4 50.0% 57.8% 50.0% 53.1% 1244
11 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 7.1% 4 25.0% 44.9% 45.0% 48.0% 1205 ↓ low
12 Fire Arcane Rai 1 7.1% 2 0.0% 26.5% 40.0% 35.9% 1297
13 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.1% 3 0.0% 43.1% 35.6% 46.0% 921 ↓ low