← Radiant Origins Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Radiant Origins Store Championship
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-4-3
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
49.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1391
· median 1391
· range 1222–1560
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1223
Q3 1435
1560
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Exia | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.4% | -13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
