← Little Spectacles Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Little Spectacles Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1362–1386
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1265
Q3 1433
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
