← Little Spectacles Store Championship
Water ExiaTier 2
at Little Spectacles Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 994
· median 994
· range 994–994
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1265
Q3 1433
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
