← Little Spectacles Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Little Spectacles Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1294–1294
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1265
Q3 1433
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.3 |
| Water Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
