← The Light Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-2-3
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1457
· range 1321–1593
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1251
Q3 1457
1593
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 19.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.0% | -20.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
